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Expectancy Calculator

Estimate the average rupee and R outcome per trade from your win rate, average win and average loss.

Quick answer: Expectancy is the average result you can expect per trade over many trades. It weights the average win by the probability of winning and subtracts the average loss weighted by the probability of losing. A positive expectancy means the system makes money on average; the tool also expresses the figure in R, where one R is the size of the average loss.

Win rate (%)Average win (₹)Average loss (₹)

How to use it

Enter your historical win rate and the average rupee size of a winning and a losing trade. The output is the expected rupee value per trade and the same figure in R, where one R equals the average loss. A positive number means the system gains on average; a negative number means it bleeds even if the win rate looks high.

Formula

Expectancy = (Win% ÷ 100 × Average win) − (1 − Win% ÷ 100) × Average loss

Expressed in R by dividing by the average loss, so R normalises the result to units of typical risk.

Frequently asked questions

What does expectancy in R mean?

R is the average loss treated as one unit of risk. An expectancy of 0.35R means that, on average, each trade returns 35 percent of a typical losing trade. It lets you compare systems that trade different rupee amounts.

Can a high win rate still lose money?

Yes. If wins are small and losses are large, a 70 percent win rate can still produce negative expectancy. Expectancy captures both frequency and size, which raw win rate alone does not.

How many trades do I need for a reliable figure?

Expectancy is a long-run average, so a handful of trades is noise. A sample of many dozens of trades, ideally across different market conditions, gives a steadier estimate.

Does positive expectancy guarantee profit?

No. It is an average over many trades; a positive-expectancy system can still suffer long losing streaks and drawdowns. Position sizing and risk of ruin determine whether you survive to realise the average.

Should I use rupee amounts or R multiples?

Either works. This tool takes rupee averages and reports both rupees and R. If your trades vary widely in size, R multiples are usually the more comparable input.

Runs entirely in your browser — no data leaves your device. Illustrative and educational only; real-world charges and market conditions apply in practice.